With prominent figures such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos increasingly identifying space as the “final frontier” of global markets, public interest in space has reached unprecedented levels. However, space and space-borne activities are not restricted to the dimension of science-fiction and the ambitions of the super-rich; many of the conveniences intrinsic to modern life – communications, navigation, entertainment – rely on the use and continued refinement of space technologies and processes. Indeed, this reliance is bound to grow exponentially in coming years; technological advances made in the area of space resource extraction and refinement, as well as the capacity for heavy industry to be relocated into space, has presented an economic and productive opportunity on par with that of the Industrial Revolution. Paired with a rapidly shrinking supply of terrestrial resources and the degradative environmental effects of related industries, space is positioned to leap to the fore of productive, economic and social planning in the coming years.

Ambitions in space are not constrained to private enterprise. Many emerging state powers are using their newfound economic strength and technological prowess to enter space with the hopes of future dominance; a trend exemplified by both China and Japan. While both Japan and China established minor space programs during the mid-20th century, the desire to secure this area of potential economic and functional importance has cultivated a new wave of investment, transforming the shape of Sino-Japanese regional competition.

Despite this antagonistic framing, the mutual benefit and inherent universality of space provides a unique opportunity for Asia – increased regional cooperation. This is not a novel concept, with space acting as the impetus for cooperation between rivals in the past, notably between the USA and USSR during the Cold War. Furthermore, strategic resources and the issue of their shared use – a notable barrier to space activity – has provided the momentum needed to form cooperative, international bodies in the past, most notably the European Coal and Steel Community, an organization which would later transform into the European Union. As such, rectifying the security concerns surrounding space activity and establishing clear rules for future space industries can both mitigate the threat of space becoming a point of conflict, and enable a pivot towards a wider trend of regional, collaborative activity. This can be accomplished through the adoption of a collaborative policy framework outlining space activity by China and Japan, realized through a regional space organization. This hypothetical “Asian Space Community” can provide a platform for the betterment of relations, the establishment of a unified, pan-Asian identity, and deeper levels of integration across the region.

The Asian Space Race

The political climate in Asia as related to space is one of increasing nationalism and contention. Both major space powers in the region – China and Japan – view space and space activities as a means to ensure long-term economic viability, political stability, and international renown.  In addition to the potential positive outcomes, space poses an existential threat; complicating the security considerations of either state which, if aggravated, can quickly contribute to the heightening of regional tensions. This competition is not exclusively fuelled by modern rivalry, with the historic animosity between China, Japan, and their respective allies – particularly Japan’s close relationship with the US – only exacerbating this shared unwillingness to cooperate. This is not to say that cooperative efforts are completely absent within Asian space activities, as both China and Japan have engaged in a substantial amount of collaborative space initiatives.

This has taken place in two forms: with strong partners – such as the US, Russia and the EU, all of which possess significant space programs and a high degree of technical capability; and, weak partners – such as Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines – where China and Japan act as providers of information and technology. What is missing from the Asian space ecosystem are meaningful middle partnerships – those between emerging space powers; in this case, China and Japan. However, the presence of these collaborative initiatives is both a reflection of the cooperative potential that exists in the region and that space activity in Asia is not exclusively belligerent in character.

These partnerships, regardless of type, have the tendency to align with either country’s pre-existing alliances. This is not a fact lost on either country, which have in turn formed two competing space groups: the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) and the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF) headed by China and Japan, respectively. The creation of these groups presents a conflicting narrative, with both acknowledging and encouraging the peaceful, equitable and reciprocal nature of space activity, while simultaneously entrenching Chinese and Japanese national objectives. While APSCO and APRSAF provide a platform for China and Japan to express their aspirations to regional leadership, they fail to apply it in a way which addresses the underlying security concerns inhibiting wider cooperation between the two countries. Expanding on the collaborative principles already instituted in multilateral organizations such as APSCO and APRSAF, Asian states can utilize space activity as a means to facilitate integrative efforts while simultaneously mitigating hostility. This can be accomplished through the formation of a unified space agency for the Asian region.

The Asian Space Community – A Cooperative Policy Framework for Space

Utilizing an existing space community such as the European Space Agency (ESA) as a reference framework, the formation of an equivalent grouping for Asia – an “Asian Space Community” (ASC) – could provide a means to catalyze increased cooperation, cohesive policymaking and coordination amongst Asian countries in their space activities, while also providing a launching point for further points of regional integration. Building on the collaborative potential introduced by APSCO and APRSAF, the ASC would place member states in a favourable position to engage with one another in project execution, while also facilitating equitable development through investments, technology transfers and information sharing with countries possessing space aspirations. The ASC would also act as a coordinative tool for both policymaking and research and development, integrating transparency measures in regards to state capacity and intent. This information sharing is a crucial component in reducing the communicative gaps that contribute to the spread of regional distrust and further impede cooperative efforts, both in space and more generally, within Asian integration.

While transparency and mutuality within a collaborative body is essential in assuring its sustainability and efficacy, any multilateral cooperative agreement for space further relies on the existence of political willingness amongst potential member states; the technological capacity to participate; and, a tangible instrument with well defined tools and objectives. While technological capacity and cooperative instrumentation are both addressed by the ASC, what is crucially missing is regional political motivation, an issue only compounded by the significant security considerations which underlie space activities. Despite this, as established, the political motivation to participate is not completely absent from Asia. Building on this is an important component in not just assuring the success of the ASC, but in building confidence between potential member states and in particular, China and Japan. Both of these states have, in other international forums, actively committed to and supported actions to further stall or altogether halt the militarization of space. Assuming that this behaviour would also be extended to regional agreements, codifying the peaceful use of space within the standards of the ASC and enforcing it through binding agreements would be integral to the existence of such an organization. This would effectively introduce measures to encourage the responsible use of space, while also providing a means to further internalize a commitment to cooperative activity, thus minimizing potential points of conflict.

Conclusion

As the role of space in the international community expands, it and the activities related to it, will inevitably become a prominent dimension of interstate competition. An Asian Space Community provides an opportunity for the region to expand and sustain its political, economic and social progress while directly addressing many of the factors which contribute to the ongoing Sino-Japanese rivalry. A major barrier to Asian integration and growth, diminishing the intensity of this rivalry and thus the likelihood of it evolving into conflict, is a major concern for all actors in the region. Compounded by a global order in decline, the need for Asia to consolidate its efforts and subsequently maintain the development of its constituent states, has become paramount. With space an increasingly important aspect of the social, economic and political nexus of the region, it is imperative that the rules governing its use are outlined in an equitable and sustainable manner. The potential for Asia to coordinate its efforts is exemplified by the possibility of an Asian Space Community. Just as reaching space was once a distant dream, Asian unity – and thus a future for Asia that is prosperous, healthy and fair – is increasingly becoming an attainable reality.

Interested in learning more? Check out these books on the subject:

• Asia’s Space Race: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries and International Risks by James Clay Moltz
• The Highways of Air and Outer Space Over Asia edited by Chia-Jui Cheng and Pablo Mendes De Leon